The Economy Will Improve (Economist)

Here is a 2013 Forecast from The Economist and the CMEgroup.

The new year will begin with heavy clouds suspended over
much of the global economy, but with the prospect of
brightening later in 2013. 

Uncertainty over the “fiscal cliff” will weigh on U.S. growth in
the short-term, but assuming this hurdle is safely negotiated,
confidence should improve next year. By mid-2013 stimulus
should also more visibly be boosting China’s economy, and
even the euro zone should be growing again. 

The Economist Intelligence Unit’s latest global forecast—
largely unchanged from last month—is therefore for a
limited pick-up in Gross Domestic Product growth next
year, with improvements in key economies setting the
stage for a stronger recovery in 2014

Read more here:
http://www.cmegroup.com/market-insights/files/eiu-global-economy-2012-12-12.pdf

Happy holidays!

Is the end of the Euro near?

Good article from the Economist:

EVEN as the euro zone hurtles towards a crash, most people are assuming that, in the end, European leaders will do whatever it takes to save the single currency. That is because the consequences of the euro’s destruction are so catastrophic that no sensible policymaker could stand by and let it happen.

A euro break-up would cause a global bust worse even than the one in 2008-09. The world’s most financially integrated region would be ripped apart by defaults, bank failures and the imposition of capital controls (see article). 

...

Past financial crises show that this downward spiral can be arrested only by bold policies to regain market confidence. But Europe’s policymakers seem unable or unwilling to be bold enough. The much-ballyhooed leveraging of the euro-zone rescue fund agreed on in October is going nowhere. Euro-zone leaders have become adept at talking up grand long-term plans to safeguard their currency—more intrusive fiscal supervision, new treaties to advance political integration. But they offer almost no ideas for containing today’s conflagration.

Read more here:

http://www.economist.com/node/21540255