Battle of the Stock Market Indicators 11/23/11

We haven't posted about our stock market indicators since October 13, 2011, because our indicators have stayed relatively constant.  On October 13th, the S&P stood at 1195 (when both our long-term and intermediate-term models were slightly bearish).  Currently, the S&P stands at 1167.  Here is an update on our stock market indicators:

• Our long-term model is currently bearish (more bearish than the slightly bearish stance on 10/13).  
• Our intermediate-term indicators are moderately bullish (from the slightly bearish stance on 10/13).  

Our key models have offsetting signals, so that stock positions will be dictated by the short-term movements in the stock market.  Long-term investors should be watching key levels of stock market technical support -- and/or adding to positions on market weakness.  Traders should be wary of the short-term trends in the markets.  

Happy Thanksgiving!

Stock System Model update (8/23 after the close)

At current levels, our stock model indicators are as shown below.  Note that at our last stock model update, the S&P was at 1296.  The S&P closed today at 1162.  Not to state the obvious, but the market has been extremely volatile and has been difficult to trade with relatively large whipsaws.

• Our positions have been dominated by the short-term movement of the markets.  Over the long haul, the combination of time-frames is typically helpful, but this market environment was extremely difficult -- creating whipsaw reversals.  
• At current levels, our long-term model is very slightly bearish.  This is the first time the model has dipped to the bearish side in quite some time.  
• Our intermediate-term oversold/overbought models are moderately bullish.  

Thus, we have a mixed bag of indicators -- where positions will remain driven by the short-term systems we employ.  Traders should be cautious -- but look for tradable moves.  Long-term investors should be cautious but may think about adding to positions on dips.  

   

Oversold Indicators turn Bullish 7/29/11

Our overbought/oversold indicators are turning bullish at current S&P levels.  The S&P currently stands at about 1296.  Our intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicators last triggered a "neutral" signal on June 24th, when the S&P was at 1282.  The market has been very volatile, with spikes in both directions -- based on news related to "debt talks" as well as the economy.  

Our long-term stock market models remain long.  The market will continue to be volatile -- as debt talks continue, the potential for credit downgrades "cast a shadow," and as the economy struggles to emerge from the recession.  

Stock System Indicators: Caution

Our intermediate stock market indicators have turned neutral after a bullish reading -- last signaled on May 11, 2011 when the S&P stood at 1338.  At the time of this signal, the S&P stands at 1282.  The market bounced back yesterday after being much lower for much of the day (and after having some rough periods).  The overbought system "took the opportunity" to go neutral.

Our long-term stock market indicators remain bullish -- although they are "medium" bullish and are not flashing the "strongly bullish" signal that they have had for a while.  

Overbought Stock Indicators 4/25/11 340pm ET

Our intermediate-term stock overbought/oversold indicators have turned slightly bearish, after their bullish stance about two weeks ago, when the S&P was about 1319.  The S&P is currently at 1336.

Our long-term indicators remain strongly bullish.  Long-term investors will want to hold their positions (and perhaps not add to their long positions).

Stock Signals Turn Long 2/25/11

Our intermediate-term stock market indicators have flipped to long from a neutral position that it has held for a while.  We had anticipated that this indicator might turn bullish -- but the stock market's steady rise had delayed the long signal for a while.

The intermediate-term model is currently strongly bullish, as is the long-term model.  The z-Trader Short-Term system, tracked on Collective2, focuses on liquid markets such as the S&P, and will reflect these models -- as well as the z-Trader's short-term models.

We typically post to this blog (and twitter) first, so for faster information, please visit and/or subscribe to this blog and our twitter.

Stock Indicators Update 2/14/11

Our stock market indicators remain the same as our last blog post.  Our long-term model remains strongly bullish (as it has been for a while).

With the stock market's continued rise, our intermediate models have remained mostly neutral.  They have had slight shifts from slightly bearish to neutral -- but with no notable or material change.  A few weeks ago, we said that our intermediate models looked like they would turn bullish -- but the market's slow rise has kept that in check.  We'll keep our readers posted on material changes to our long-term or intermediate-term indicators.

Our short-term models, along with the long-term models, have kept us on the right side of the stock market's rise, so that our Short-Term System has had a good run in February.   

Overbought Indicators flip to slightly bearish 12/2/10

With the S&P reaching new recent highs in the 1220 area, our overbought / oversold stock market indicators are flipping to slightly-bearish from a moderately-strong bullish signal. Our long-term indicators remain strongly bullish. Both indicators have followed the market higher, with the intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicators flipping to bullish on 10/25, when the S&P was 1185.

The long-term models remain strongly bullish, having ridden the current market from the 1148 level, when the model went long on 9/24 -- to the current levels of 1220.

Please keep an eye on this blog, as well as our SeekingAlpha.com page, and Twitter -- for updated information on our stock market indicators, managed futures, commodities, and trading strategies.

http://z-trader.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/carlton-chin-cfa

http://twitter.com/#!/z_trader

Stock Indicator Update; Twitter 11/17/10

Earlier today, we "Twitted" about our stock market indicators changing. Note that we will always post changes to our long-term or intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicators on our blog or Twitter.

In particular, our oversold indicators turned fully bullish after a modest long position posted several weeks ago. This is interesting because many analysts believe that the market is "turning over" to the downside.

Our long-term stock market indicators remain fully long as well. These indicators have been long as the market rallied to recent highs.

Check out our blog and/or Twitter for stock market indicator updates -- as well as information on other markets such as futures and commodities.

Long-Term Stock Models Go Long 10/7/10 350pm

Near the close today, our long-term stock market model has gone fully long, from it's medium-long position.

In addition, our intermediate-term models are just very slightly short, from a moderately short position. Net-net, we now have a moderate to medium-long stock market position and outlook. You can't fight the tape...

Battle of the Stock Market Indicators 9/24 330pm

With the stock market's continued rise, our long-term indicators are turning to a "medium long" position from its neutral signal of a week ago.

Meanwhile, our intermediate-term models remain bearish -- with a moderate to medium bearish signal. We sometimes see indicators disagreeing, but we rarely see "medium-level" signals in the opposite direction.

The markets will dictate how this situation resolves itself, and our systematic models will keep us disciplined.

If you like these posts, please follow my blog at SeekingAlpha.com:

http://seekingalpha.com/author/carlton-chin-cfa/instablog/full_index

Long-Term Stock Indicators turn Neutral 9/17/10 730am ET

With the sustained rally, our long-term stock indicators went from a "moderately bearish" stance to a neutral position, at the close on Thursday, September 16th.

Our intermediate-term indicators remain cautious and slightly bearish. No indicator will be correct all of the time, and the long-term indicator certainly "took it on the chin" this time. However, like all good investment strategies, the system will will "cut its losses" at some point -- in order to preserve capital -- and look for another opportunity in the future.
___

With gold's continuing rally to all-time highs, there has been increased interest in commodities. Stay tuned for some research on the commodities markets and the diversification opportunities they offer to traditional portfolios that hold equities.

Stock Indicators: Moderately Bearish (9/3/10; 12:30pm ET)

With the market rally, our indicators have changed to an overall slightly bearish position. Our long-term models have changed from a medium bearish signal to a moderately short position.

Our intermediate-term models have flipped from a moderate/medium long position to a moderately bearish signal.

Both signals are bearish -- but note that both are just "moderate." As a result, traders should look to the shorter-term trend for additional direction.

Investors should be cautious.

Stock indicators: Neutral Stance 8/27/10 (near the close)

At current stock market levels, our long-term indicators are slipping to a "medium level" bearish stance.

Our intermediate-term indicators still believe that the market is oversold, but with today's rally, they have slipped to a moderate to -medium level bullish level.

Thus, the indicators have a neutral stance. Long-term investors should be cautious, as our long-term indicators have not been this bearish in a while. Traders should keep an eye on short-term trends to dictate stock positions. I will update changes in intermediate and long-term indicators on this blog.

Stock Market Oversold 8/12/10

At current levels, our intermediate-term overbought/oversold stock market indicators feel that some of the air has been let out of the market -- and are going long. We have a full long-signal based on these intermediate-term models.

Note that due to the sharp sell-off from recent peaks, our long-term model is just very slightly bullish, down from its medium long signal.

Net-net, we will have a bullish stock market stance, with the market's short-term trend helping us with our overall equity exposure.

8/12/10 3:25pm ET

Stock Market Indicators

As of our last stock market update on July 20, 2010, both our long-term and intermediate-term models were moderately bullish:

http://z-trader.blogspot.com/2010/07/stock-market-outlook.html

As the market rallied from around the 1080 level to recent highs at 1125 on the S&P 500, the models maintained this bullish stance. Now, however, the intermediate-term overbought indicators are turning moderately bearish. Interestingly, the long-term model remains just moderately bullish, even with the relatively strong rally.

A "look-ahead" at probable intermediate-term signals shows that (depending on market action), the intermediate overbought-oversold indicators will be bearish for about a week or so. Long-term stock investors may not want to take action on a short-term change in model indicators but shorter-term traders may want to take profits.

Please visit our blog for stock market model updates.

Stock Market Outlook

With the sharp decline, and bounce, our stock market models are turning bullish. The long-term model remains moderately bullish. The overbought/oversold indicators have turned from moderately short to moderately long.

In addition, barring wild market action, a look-ahead at the model's signals shows that they will turn from moderately bullish to a medium long signal. Perhaps the summer rally is getting set to start in earnest.

Long-Term Systems Flip to Moderately Bullish

With today's rally, our long-term stock models are flipping to moderately bullish at the close today (from their moderately bearish stance). Our overbought (intermediate) stock market indicators remain moderately bearish.

The short-term trend upwards today kept us flat to slightly long overall. Remember to keep all three time-frames in mind if you are a trader.

Stock Systems Wary

Our long-term stock market indicators are moderately bearish. The market has bounced, but not very strongly. The indicator will hold on to it's bearish stance for a few more days, based on market action.

Interestingly, our intermediate indicators are also moderately bearish right now. The intermediate and long-term indicators have been countering each other a bit recently, but both are now moderately bearish due to the market bounce. They are calling it a dead-cat bounce -- at least for a few more days.

We'll keep you posted with any changed in the stock market indicators.

Mixed Signals (Stock Market)

Interestingly, we have mixed signals from our intermediate-term and long-term stock market indicators. Our long-term model moved to flat from a long position for the first time since last July, based in today's decline. Upcoming market action will determine if the model goes short on the stock market.

Our intermediate overbought / oversold models feel the market is well oversold and moved from a flat position to a fully long position. In total, this leaves us still slightly bullish, but we will be watching the long-term model closely, as a 'look-ahead" indicates that unless we see some strength within a week or so, the long-term model will go short.

Enjoy the July 4th weekend.