Managed Futures: Performance & Diversification

Some of our readers know that our specialty is "alternative investments." We believe that alternative investments such as commodities, managed futures, and other diversifying strategies offer good diversification benefits to a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds.

CARAT Capital was originally started to combine concepts of Modern Portfolio Theory, downside measures of risk, and robust trading systems. CARAT is an acronym for Computer Aided Research & Advanced Technology. Today, all money management activities are handled byAdamah Capital, a firm founded by Carlton Chin, CFA and his long-time friend and associate, George Parr.

Managed Futures have had a nice run over the past several months. Please check out the performance of our Diversified Program, tracked by a third-party firm. Carlton Chin, has a solid longer-term track record. Over time, managed futures have proven to earn returns from opportunities in the futures markets -- that are non-correlated to traditional assets such as stocks and bonds.

Please visit our websites and contact us for more information.

Article on Commodities Indices, Managed Futures & Diversification

As gold has continued to rally to all-time highs, there has been increased interest in gold, commodities, and managed futures as “diversification plays.” Indeed, these “assets” have been receiving increasing attention as true “asset classes” that offer good risk/returns and diversification benefits – for a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds.

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A “buy and hold” commodities approach has proven to be a solid diversifier over the years. However, just like “buy and hold” stock strategies have come under fire, the 2008 decline in commodities has led some investors towards actively “managed futures” as a good alternative investment.

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During the 2008 financial crisis, many managed futures programs were able to profit from the extreme moves, with the Barclays CTA Index posting a +14.1% return.

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For the complete article, please visit:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/226247-commodities-managed-futures-and-diversification

Risk Management, Kurtosis, Skewness & Extreme Value Theory

My article at SeekingAlpha.com was published as a full-fledged article - and I am now an official "Contributor" at their website. Someone asked a few good questions that I answered on the website. I also copied it below, since I thought it was good information.

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More realistic estimate of probabilities: I like semi-deviation as an easy-to-explain measure (volatility and risk to the downside). Additional measures that help describe return distributions -- would involve calculating additional "moments" such as skewness and kurtosis (the fat-tailed distributions that many investment strategists strive for = minimize losses, fattening profits).

More on Semi-Correlation: Semi-correlation is somewhat similar to correlation, except it studies periods where certain assets decline. This can give a "true" measure of diversification during financial crises.

There is also a branch of statistics that studies the probability of big dislocations such as crashes in markets (Extreme Value Theory) - which is very interesting...

My Article at SeekingAlpha - Portfolio Optimization and Rising Correlations

Here's a link to my article at SeekingAlpha.com.

In particular, it talks about "true" diversification amidst rising correlations and the evolving world -- and some implications for portfolio optimization. I show a tool I developed that I call semi-correlation. This statistic can show which asset classes offer more "true diversification" when many assets start moving together in a financial crisis.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/215457-portfolio-optimization-with-rising-correlations-and-an-evolving-world

My Article at SeekingAlpha - Semi-Deviation & Semi-Correlation

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/677712-carlton-chin-cfa/79376-post-modern-portfolio-theory-semi-deviation-semi-correlation

The popular mean-variance approaches are well-documented methods of improving a portfolio’s risk-reward characteristics. The fact that Markowitz’s contributions to Modern Portfolio Theory have stood the test of time – more than fifty years later – shows the power of these methods. Over the years, additional models have been developed, that, for example, help investors establish reasonable assumptions and optimizer inputs such as expected returns, volatility (standard deviation), and correlations amongst asset classes.

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Summary

It is important to study and measure true downside risk and the inter-relationships amongst various asset classes. More specifically, determine which particular asset classes may help when certain assets are declining in value. Semi-correlation as well as semi-deviation have proven to provide a more accurate picture – when applying portfolio diversification models.

In addition to improved risk measures and correlation studies, a variety of tools (such as Monte Carlo analysis) form a strong foundation for enhanced portfolio optimization and Post-MPT. On top of a “risk-management portfolio optimization engine,” robust alternative investment strategies add meaningful diversification and greatly improve expected risk/return characteristics to a portfolio.

Carlton Chin, CFA, is a specialist in strategic asset allocation, quantitative investment strategies, and alternative assets. Carlton has worked with institutional investors on asset allocation and is a fund manager. He holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT.

Stock Indicators; Also: Correlated Markets

Our oversold/overbought indicators remain bullish. In addition, our short-term and long-term indicators are bullish. This caused us a little pain last week when the market declined, but we're riding this upward leg right now...

Correlated Markets

Recently, we mentioned how many markets had started to move together as stocks continued to move straight up from the March lows. Most commodities were generally moving higher (including energy, metals, grains, softs) as were risk-related / high-interest currencies such as the Aussie and Canadian Dollars.

When markets become correlated, traders must be careful and monitor their overall portfolio risk. Last week's markets were a wake-up call as currencies, gold and other markets followed the stock market's lead downwards.

Collecting Volatility

We had a huge snapback rally in April following the sharp decline into March. Since that time, stocks have been generally calm with a slight upward trend. This "calm" market action has released some of the "fear" in the marketplace. May was up around +8%; while June is currently down -2.5%. This has allowed us to collect volatility in the marketplace over each of the last two months.

Premium Members who used our approach of "collecting volatility" had some good diversification for their stock portfolios these past few months. This system collected near the expected maximum of around 4% in both May and June.