Reiterate Overbought Stock Signal 5/24/13

Two weeks ago, our stock market overbought / oversold indicator flashed a bearish signal.  At the time, the S&P 500 was 1627.  Today, the S&P closed at 1649.60, so this signal has been a loser, to date.  Over the years, the overbought / oversold model has been a good performer, but at some point, good systems will "throw in the towel" and cut their losses (-- and get back on the main trend).

• Currently, the Overbought stock signal is still bearish.    
• The long-term indicator remains bullish.
• The short-term trend is up.  
• Thus, our positions have been dictated by our short-term model.  

Note that the overbought indicator looks like it may flip to neutral to slightly bullish soon, so visit our blog regularly (or connect to our twitter).  

Happy Memorial Day weekend.  

Stock Systems Go Long 2/25 (8:30 am)

Our stock systems are now long, with some of the air let our of the recent rise in the stock market.  The stock market has seen a strong run since the depths of the financial crisis (2008/09) -- and also since the middle of 2011 and last summer.  The market seems just a touch overbought, but our systems don't want to "fight the tape" any more on this short-to intermediate-term cycle.  Although many are still struggling with this difficult economy, there are finally scattered signs of recovery.

Our last signal was on January 3,. 2013, when our overall stock signals went flat -- based on the intermediate-term overbought models going slightly bearish. At the time, the S&P stood at 1457, and with Friday's close at 1515.60, this signal was a slight loss.  Currently, our models are:

• Long-term: bullish
• Intermediate-term: bullish
• Short-term: changeable, but currently bullish.  

Stock Market Systems: Full Steam Ahead (7/12/12)

Our stock market indicators just switched to:  all bullish.  This is a change from our last update of almost a month ago, on June 16th, when our overbought / oversold indicators flashed a "pause" signal when the S&P stood at around 1343.

Since the last update on June 16th, the stock market has been churning and has been fairly volatile (in a range of about 1313-1370), but is relatively unchanged over the entire time period -- and currently stands at 1336.8.  Here is a look at our stock indicators:

• Our long-term model remains strongly bullish.
• Our intermediate overbought / oversold indicators are strongly bullish as well. 
• Our short-term models reflect short-term movements, so we do not typically list the current signal.  

Traders -- including stock index futures traders -- may want to be long in the stock indices.  Long-term investors with an over-allocation to cash may want to put some of that cash to work.  

Stock Market Oversold 5/21/12

With the stock market's drop from around 1400 at the beginning of May to the current levels around 1308, our oversold models are now bullish.  That decline represents a drop of some -7%.   What do our trading models say now?

• Our intermediate-term oversold models are now strongly bullish.  Traders may want to trade a potential bounce upwards.
• Our long-term models remain bullish -- but are slightly cautious, wary of potential downdrafts.

Our last stock market signal update was on May 2, 2012, when the S&P stood at 1406.  The S&P is at 1308 at the time of writing this.  

Stock Market Indicators 9/17/11

After the stock market's snapback from an early-September -6% decline (S&P is now almost flat for the month, but remains down for the year) -- our overbought stock market indicators are now neutral.  Our last blog post for our stock market indicators was on September 12; our intermediate-term models went long -- when the S&P was at 1140.  The S&P closed on Friday at 1216.

Our long-term indicators remain neutral -- with the models looking for further directional information from the stock market.  As a result, our positions will be dictated by short-term trends.  

At Current Stock Levels... 9/12/11

our oversold indicators are flashing a "Buy" signal.  This intermediate-term signal is a step up from the "moderately bullish" signal given on August 23 (when the S&P was at 1162).  Currently, the S&P stands at 1140.

Note that our long-term model is neutral but may give a signal change over the next few days.  We will keep our readers posted.  

Oversold Indicators turn Bullish 7/29/11

Our overbought/oversold indicators are turning bullish at current S&P levels.  The S&P currently stands at about 1296.  Our intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicators last triggered a "neutral" signal on June 24th, when the S&P was at 1282.  The market has been very volatile, with spikes in both directions -- based on news related to "debt talks" as well as the economy.  

Our long-term stock market models remain long.  The market will continue to be volatile -- as debt talks continue, the potential for credit downgrades "cast a shadow," and as the economy struggles to emerge from the recession.  

Stock System Indicators: Caution

Our intermediate stock market indicators have turned neutral after a bullish reading -- last signaled on May 11, 2011 when the S&P stood at 1338.  At the time of this signal, the S&P stands at 1282.  The market bounced back yesterday after being much lower for much of the day (and after having some rough periods).  The overbought system "took the opportunity" to go neutral.

Our long-term stock market indicators remain bullish -- although they are "medium" bullish and are not flashing the "strongly bullish" signal that they have had for a while.  

Overbought Stock Indicators 4/25/11 340pm ET

Our intermediate-term stock overbought/oversold indicators have turned slightly bearish, after their bullish stance about two weeks ago, when the S&P was about 1319.  The S&P is currently at 1336.

Our long-term indicators remain strongly bullish.  Long-term investors will want to hold their positions (and perhaps not add to their long positions).

Oversold Indicators turn Bullish 4/13/11 7am ET

Our oversold stock market indicators have turned moderately bullish from their slightly bearish signals of March 25th (when the S&P was at 1318).  The market is calling slightly higher in overnight trading, with the S&P trading electronically at the equivalent of 1319 (on the cash S&P).

Our long-term models remain strongly bullish, and our short-term models are slightly bullish, awaiting confirmation during the day.  Long-term investors should have their stock positions in place, and traders can be looking to enter the equity markets.

Overbought Stock Indicators turn Slightly Bearish - 3/25/11, 1pm ET

A quick blog post:  our intermediate term overbought stock indicators have turned slightly bearish.  This indicator last changed a week ago, when the S&P stood at 1275.

The S&P is currently at 1318.  Our long-term stock indicators remain strongly bullish.

Our equity outlook is based on a combination of our long-term, intermediate (overbought/oversold) and short-term stock market models.    

Oversold Stock Indicators Go Long 3/17/11 11:30am ET

Our oversold/overbought indicators have flipped to strongly long after their recent bearish signal on March 7, when the S&P was near 1310.  The S&P currently stands at 1275.

• Traders should be cautious with the increased volatility (as well as news from Japan and the Middle East).
• Long-term investors looking to add equity positions may consider increasing their equity allocations.  

Intermediate Stock Indicators Turn Slightly Bearish 3/7/11

Out intermediate-term stock indicators have turned slightly bearish from their previous bullish stance (last signal update on 2/25/11, early am).  Our long-term indicators remain bullish (as they have been for a while).

At the time of this signal, the S&P is near 1310.  Our equity positions are a function of these indicators -- along with short-term stock market models.  Together, these indicators over multiple time-frames are used in our z-Trader Short-Term System.  

Stock Indicators Update 2/14/11

Our stock market indicators remain the same as our last blog post.  Our long-term model remains strongly bullish (as it has been for a while).

With the stock market's continued rise, our intermediate models have remained mostly neutral.  They have had slight shifts from slightly bearish to neutral -- but with no notable or material change.  A few weeks ago, we said that our intermediate models looked like they would turn bullish -- but the market's slow rise has kept that in check.  We'll keep our readers posted on material changes to our long-term or intermediate-term indicators.

Our short-term models, along with the long-term models, have kept us on the right side of the stock market's rise, so that our Short-Term System has had a good run in February.   

Intermediate Stock Indicators -- Flat

Our intermediate-term indicators went flat today, as mentioned in our blog post just before the market closed earlier today. Note that we will always post changes to our intermediate and long-term stock models to this blog. For faster access to this information, please subscribe to our blog and twitter (z_trader).

Normally, our intermediate-term indicators don't change this quickly. The last signal change was on Tuesday, January 11th. However, the rapid rise from Tuesday's close of 1274, to today's (Friday's) close of 1293 caused our overbought models to go neutral. The typical intermediate-term signal is more like 2 weeks or so.

Our long-term models remain strongly bullish, as they have been since early October.

Quick Blog Post -- Intermediate-Term Stock Signal

... is turning to flat. More later.

Intermediate Stock Indicators - Moderately Long

As the market nears the close, our intermediate-term stock market indicators are moving to an increasingly bullish position -- going from a slightly-long reading to a moderately-long position. Our long-term indicators remain strongly bullish.

We do not post indications from our short-term indicators, but our overall S&P positions are dictated by the combination of all time frames. Our S&P models are part of a z-Trader Short-Term System monitored at Collective2.

We also use Collective2 to track our Diversified Futures program, zFutures.

Overbought Indicators flip to slightly bearish 12/2/10

With the S&P reaching new recent highs in the 1220 area, our overbought / oversold stock market indicators are flipping to slightly-bearish from a moderately-strong bullish signal. Our long-term indicators remain strongly bullish. Both indicators have followed the market higher, with the intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicators flipping to bullish on 10/25, when the S&P was 1185.

The long-term models remain strongly bullish, having ridden the current market from the 1148 level, when the model went long on 9/24 -- to the current levels of 1220.

Please keep an eye on this blog, as well as our SeekingAlpha.com page, and Twitter -- for updated information on our stock market indicators, managed futures, commodities, and trading strategies.

http://z-trader.blogspot.com/

http://seekingalpha.com/author/carlton-chin-cfa

http://twitter.com/#!/z_trader

Stock Indicator Update; Twitter 11/17/10

Earlier today, we "Twitted" about our stock market indicators changing. Note that we will always post changes to our long-term or intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicators on our blog or Twitter.

In particular, our oversold indicators turned fully bullish after a modest long position posted several weeks ago. This is interesting because many analysts believe that the market is "turning over" to the downside.

Our long-term stock market indicators remain fully long as well. These indicators have been long as the market rallied to recent highs.

Check out our blog and/or Twitter for stock market indicator updates -- as well as information on other markets such as futures and commodities.

From our Twitter: 17 Nov 11am ET: Intermediate-term (oversold) stock indicators turn bullish.

17 Nov 11am ET: Intermediate-term (oversold) stock indicators turn bullish. Long-term models remain strongly bullish. More on blog later today.