Intermediate-Term Stock Market Indicators FINALLY Long

It has been quite a while that our stock market indicators have gone long, and our results suffered accordingly.

The stock market closed today at 1920.  Our last update was 11 months ago.

• Happily, our long-term indicators kept us generally long (to flat or slightly long) in the stock market since they remained strongly bullish during the run-up.  
• Currently, the long-term indicators are moderately bullish.  The long-term indicator has its "foot off of the gas" due to the recent sell-off. 
• Our medium term oversold indicators are now fully long.  These indicators had been predicting a sell-off incorrectly for several months, keeping us from being fully long in the stock market.  

Over the long-term, we have a good record managing the ebbs and flows of the stock market.  This recent under-weighting of equities brings us back closer to the pack in terms of market-timing, but we have outperformed most.

Stock System Indicators: Caution

Our intermediate stock market indicators have turned neutral after a bullish reading -- last signaled on May 11, 2011 when the S&P stood at 1338.  At the time of this signal, the S&P stands at 1282.  The market bounced back yesterday after being much lower for much of the day (and after having some rough periods).  The overbought system "took the opportunity" to go neutral.

Our long-term stock market indicators remain bullish -- although they are "medium" bullish and are not flashing the "strongly bullish" signal that they have had for a while.  

Intermediate-Term Stock Indicators turn Bullish

Our intermediate-term oversold/overbought stock indicators are turning bullish at current stock market levels.  The S&P is currently at 1338 --- and was at 1336 at the last intermediate-term stock indicator change on April 25, 2011.  (Please see link below for last signal.)

http://z-trader.blogspot.com/2011/04/overbought-stock-indicators-42511-340pm.html

Our long-term indicators remain strongly bullish.

Intermediate Stock Indicators Turn Slightly Bearish 3/7/11

Out intermediate-term stock indicators have turned slightly bearish from their previous bullish stance (last signal update on 2/25/11, early am).  Our long-term indicators remain bullish (as they have been for a while).

At the time of this signal, the S&P is near 1310.  Our equity positions are a function of these indicators -- along with short-term stock market models.  Together, these indicators over multiple time-frames are used in our z-Trader Short-Term System.  

Stock Signals Turn Long 2/25/11

Our intermediate-term stock market indicators have flipped to long from a neutral position that it has held for a while.  We had anticipated that this indicator might turn bullish -- but the stock market's steady rise had delayed the long signal for a while.

The intermediate-term model is currently strongly bullish, as is the long-term model.  The z-Trader Short-Term system, tracked on Collective2, focuses on liquid markets such as the S&P, and will reflect these models -- as well as the z-Trader's short-term models.

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Stock Indicators Update 2/14/11

Our stock market indicators remain the same as our last blog post.  Our long-term model remains strongly bullish (as it has been for a while).

With the stock market's continued rise, our intermediate models have remained mostly neutral.  They have had slight shifts from slightly bearish to neutral -- but with no notable or material change.  A few weeks ago, we said that our intermediate models looked like they would turn bullish -- but the market's slow rise has kept that in check.  We'll keep our readers posted on material changes to our long-term or intermediate-term indicators.

Our short-term models, along with the long-term models, have kept us on the right side of the stock market's rise, so that our Short-Term System has had a good run in February.   

Intermediate Stock Indicators -- Flat

Our intermediate-term indicators went flat today, as mentioned in our blog post just before the market closed earlier today. Note that we will always post changes to our intermediate and long-term stock models to this blog. For faster access to this information, please subscribe to our blog and twitter (z_trader).

Normally, our intermediate-term indicators don't change this quickly. The last signal change was on Tuesday, January 11th. However, the rapid rise from Tuesday's close of 1274, to today's (Friday's) close of 1293 caused our overbought models to go neutral. The typical intermediate-term signal is more like 2 weeks or so.

Our long-term models remain strongly bullish, as they have been since early October.