By way of background, our quantitative trading systems are technical in nature and are tuned and researched for market action, time-frame, and execution. We focus on the intermediate to long-term time horizon -- with shorter-term approaches "in the mix" for diversification and risk management reasons.
In particular, the notes focus on trade entry and execution. We would all like to enter a trade at the best possible price/trade entry. On the other hand, we have heard some great traders and "market wizards" such as Paul Tudor Jones, Bill Eckhardt, or Richard Dennis -- say they prefer trades and markets where execution seems bad; or markets that are "running away" from them.
In the long run (based on experience; also, data backs this up) -- our trading strategies are designed so that they can enter trades "at the market." Sometimes, we'll be able to get a better price; other times, the trade will move away from us (along with profits) -- so going "at the market" is okay. If we want to "be long" in a market, we should initiate the trade.
Below is an example of why some market wizards PREFER buying markets that are running away from them.
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Say, we want to buy Market X and the price is 100.00.
- (A) Trade Initiation -- at trade initiation, our trade expectations might be something like this.
- 47% chance of Profitable Trade (yes, less than 1/2 the trades are profitable...)
- Avg Gain = 1700 (but avg gain is greater than avg loss);
- Avg Loss = 1000
- In the long run, this kind of trade action will lead to profits, even with less than 50% of the trades profitable.
- (B) "Bargain" (?!) Trade -- if we wait a bit on pricing -- and the price is now 99.25, we might think, "Oh great, this is a good deal." However, note that this is not the exact match of all trades in the bucket in category (A). This "Bargain" trade is a subset of category (A).
- Note that "noise" will sometimes work for trade entries and sometimes against trade entry.
- However, within the complete dataset of trades, there IS an area where "noise" becomes "information."
- And roughly, the numbers for this trade might NOW be something like this:
- 44% chance of Profitable Trade (market is moving against the desired long position)
- Avg Gain == 1600
- Avg Loss == 1100
- Note that this subset has slightly lesser trade parameters -- because there is "more information" based on the lower price.
Although this example is simplified, our technical and quantitative trading strategies take these factors -- as well as other quant research and volatility / risk management -- into consideration.
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