Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Stock Indicator Update; Twitter 11/17/10

Earlier today, we "Twitted" about our stock market indicators changing. Note that we will always post changes to our long-term or intermediate-term overbought/oversold indicators on our blog or Twitter.

In particular, our oversold indicators turned fully bullish after a modest long position posted several weeks ago. This is interesting because many analysts believe that the market is "turning over" to the downside.

Our long-term stock market indicators remain fully long as well. These indicators have been long as the market rallied to recent highs.

Check out our blog and/or Twitter for stock market indicator updates -- as well as information on other markets such as futures and commodities.

From our Twitter: 17 Nov 11am ET: Intermediate-term (oversold) stock indicators turn bullish.

17 Nov 11am ET: Intermediate-term (oversold) stock indicators turn bullish. Long-term models remain strongly bullish. More on blog later today.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Commodities: Prices & Volatility Increase (Capturing Profits with Managed Futures)

Below are excerpts from our SeekingAlpha article on the recent spike in commodity prices -- and sudden sharp reversal. The increased volatility presents challenges to CTAs as futures traders balance the offsetting goals of:
  • capturing additional profits, while
  • protecting existing principal.
The article discusses methods that managed futures programs use to capture -- and retain profits from the futures markets. For the complete text and some charts, please visit the link.

Recent months have seen a continued decline in the U.S. dollar and an associated rise in commodities prices. After a relatively steady climb in commodity prices since May, commodity prices spiked early in November. Gold crossed above the $1400/ounce level and crude oil challenged the $90/barrel level. Along with the rise in commodity prices, volatility has suddenly picked up this past week in the commodity futures markets.

Some additional recent futures market activity, reflected by the Liquid Commodities Index (LCI):
  • Since hitting a recent low at May 31, 2010, commodities have rallied strongly, with the LCI rallying more than 20%.


The investable, "Liquid Commodities Index" (LCI), was designed so that Adamah Capital could more easily track the price movements of the commodity futures markets. The LCI has a very high correlation (about 0.98) to other commodities indices, has slightly better risk/return characteristics, and is a good low-fee alternative for investors seeking the diversification benefits of the major commodities markets.
Managed Futures
In addition to a passive approach to investing in commodities, some investors seek a more actively-managed approach to futures, namely "managed futures." These products can capture both up and down movements within the futures markets. The Liquid Commodities Index showed the "buy and hold" performance of the commodities markets over the past several months.
... The Adamah Diversified Program captured profits in the futures markets over the past few months -- and protected profits during the sharp reversal of the week ending November 12, 2010, maintaining about 75% of the month's gains.
Many managed futures programs are systematic and aim to capture moves within the futures markets. While no program will be successful all of the time, a good trading strategy will attempt to capture the profit opportunities within the markets -- maintain these profits -- and minimize risk and whipsaw losses during more difficult trading environments.
Quantitative trading programs often manage and monitor risk on both a "trading system" level as well as on a "portfolio level." Trading strategies are often based on historical simulations, as well as statistical and systematic research. They are also tested in a multitude of ways to increase the comfort level of robustness and improve the "forward information" of the strategies. These methods include blind-testing, bootstrapping, Monte Carlo, and other methods to maximize the effective use of data.

Finally, CTAs monitor and manage risk within their portfolios using a number of metrics and models. In addition to capturing the opportunities the futures markets offer, it is essential to protect these profits. In today's economic environment -- with commodity price volatility increasing -- risk management and "protecting profits" are particularly important.

Carlton Chin, CFA, is the portfolio manager for ADAMAH Capital, which specializes in Computer Aided Research & Advanced Technology (CARAT). He founded Adamah with his long-time friend and associate, George Parr. Carlton has been quoted and featured in the Wall St. Journal, NY Times, MARhedge, Futures Magazine, and Financial Trader. He holds both undergraduate and graduate degrees from MIT.