Friday, August 27, 2010

Stock indicators: Neutral Stance 8/27/10 (near the close)

At current stock market levels, our long-term indicators are slipping to a "medium level" bearish stance.

Our intermediate-term indicators still believe that the market is oversold, but with today's rally, they have slipped to a moderate to -medium level bullish level.

Thus, the indicators have a neutral stance. Long-term investors should be cautious, as our long-term indicators have not been this bearish in a while. Traders should keep an eye on short-term trends to dictate stock positions. I will update changes in intermediate and long-term indicators on this blog.

Thursday, August 12, 2010

Stock Market Oversold 8/12/10

At current levels, our intermediate-term overbought/oversold stock market indicators feel that some of the air has been let out of the market -- and are going long. We have a full long-signal based on these intermediate-term models.

Note that due to the sharp sell-off from recent peaks, our long-term model is just very slightly bullish, down from its medium long signal.

Net-net, we will have a bullish stock market stance, with the market's short-term trend helping us with our overall equity exposure.

8/12/10 3:25pm ET

Friday, August 6, 2010

Stock Market Indicators

As of our last stock market update on July 20, 2010, both our long-term and intermediate-term models were moderately bullish:

As the market rallied from around the 1080 level to recent highs at 1125 on the S&P 500, the models maintained this bullish stance. Now, however, the intermediate-term overbought indicators are turning moderately bearish. Interestingly, the long-term model remains just moderately bullish, even with the relatively strong rally.

A "look-ahead" at probable intermediate-term signals shows that (depending on market action), the intermediate overbought-oversold indicators will be bearish for about a week or so. Long-term stock investors may not want to take action on a short-term change in model indicators but shorter-term traders may want to take profits.

Please visit our blog for stock market model updates.