Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Intermediate-Term Stock Market Indicators FINALLY Long

It has been quite a while that our stock market indicators have gone long, and our results suffered accordingly.

The stock market closed today at 1920.  Our last update was 11 months ago.

  • Happily, our long-term indicators kept us generally long (to flat or slightly long) in the stock market since they remained strongly bullish during the run-up.  
  • Currently, the long-term indicators are moderately bullish.  The long-term indicator has its "foot off of the gas" due to the recent sell-off. 
  • Our medium term oversold indicators are now fully long.  These indicators had been predicting a sell-off incorrectly for several months, keeping us from being fully long in the stock market.  

Over the long-term, we have a good record managing the ebbs and flows of the stock market.  This recent under-weighting of equities brings us back closer to the pack in terms of market-timing, but we have outperformed most.