Friday, September 24, 2010

Battle of the Stock Market Indicators 9/24 330pm

With the stock market's continued rise, our long-term indicators are turning to a "medium long" position from its neutral signal of a week ago.

Meanwhile, our intermediate-term models remain bearish -- with a moderate to medium bearish signal. We sometimes see indicators disagreeing, but we rarely see "medium-level" signals in the opposite direction.

The markets will dictate how this situation resolves itself, and our systematic models will keep us disciplined.

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Monday, September 20, 2010

Article on Commodities Indices, Managed Futures & Diversification

As gold has continued to rally to all-time highs, there has been increased interest in gold, commodities, and managed futures as “diversification plays.” Indeed, these “assets” have been receiving increasing attention as true “asset classes” that offer good risk/returns and diversification benefits – for a traditional portfolio of stocks and bonds.
A “buy and hold” commodities approach has proven to be a solid diversifier over the years. However, just like “buy and hold” stock strategies have come under fire, the 2008 decline in commodities has led some investors towards actively “managed futures” as a good alternative investment.
During the 2008 financial crisis, many managed futures programs were able to profit from the extreme moves, with the Barclays CTA Index posting a +14.1% return.
For the complete article, please visit:

Friday, September 17, 2010

Long-Term Stock Indicators turn Neutral 9/17/10 730am ET

With the sustained rally, our long-term stock indicators went from a "moderately bearish" stance to a neutral position, at the close on Thursday, September 16th.

Our intermediate-term indicators remain cautious and slightly bearish. No indicator will be correct all of the time, and the long-term indicator certainly "took it on the chin" this time. However, like all good investment strategies, the system will will "cut its losses" at some point -- in order to preserve capital -- and look for another opportunity in the future.

With gold's continuing rally to all-time highs, there has been increased interest in commodities. Stay tuned for some research on the commodities markets and the diversification opportunities they offer to traditional portfolios that hold equities.

Sunday, September 12, 2010

US Open -- Men's Final

Some of our readers asked us to mention when we have interesting sports information on our sports book blog. Please click on the link below for the entire blog post.

Below is an EXCERPT

Tennis Big Point Performance (BPP)

What does our Tennis "Big Point Performance" (BPP) say about today's finalists? Our book's tennis measure focuses on performance during big points (break points for and against). BPP has been a good predictor of the latter matches in major tennis tournaments and predicted Federer's loss in last year's final.

BPP gives a very slight edge to Djokovic in this year's US Open final. As you can see in the chart below, the semifinal match gives a tiny edge to Nadal, but using both the quarterfinals and semifinals gives the overall edge to Djokovic. Djokovic has been playing the big points consistently well.

Big Point Performance - Men's Finalists

Djokovic = + 7% and +1 in his five-set match over Federer in the Semi-Finals
Djokovic = +24% and +5 in QF match

Nadal = +13% and +2 in his semi-final match over Youzhny
Nadal = -56% and -2 in QF match

Friday, September 3, 2010

Stock Indicators: Moderately Bearish (9/3/10; 12:30pm ET)

With the market rally, our indicators have changed to an overall slightly bearish position. Our long-term models have changed from a medium bearish signal to a moderately short position.

Our intermediate-term models have flipped from a moderate/medium long position to a moderately bearish signal.

Both signals are bearish -- but note that both are just "moderate." As a result, traders should look to the shorter-term trend for additional direction.

Investors should be cautious.