Wednesday, June 30, 2010

Mixed Signals (Stock Market)

Interestingly, we have mixed signals from our intermediate-term and long-term stock market indicators. Our long-term model moved to flat from a long position for the first time since last July, based in today's decline. Upcoming market action will determine if the model goes short on the stock market.

Our intermediate overbought / oversold models feel the market is well oversold and moved from a flat position to a fully long position. In total, this leaves us still slightly bullish, but we will be watching the long-term model closely, as a 'look-ahead" indicates that unless we see some strength within a week or so, the long-term model will go short.

Enjoy the July 4th weekend.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Intermediate Indicators go flat; LT bullish

Our intermediate oversold/overbought indicators are now flat to slightly bearish. However, our long-term systems remain bullish. The LT systems, in particular, "liked" the bounce off of recent support / market lows to current readings of 1110 on the S&P.

Perhaps we'll now continue to climb the "wall of worry" -- but be wary, because we are currently overbought a bit.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Stock System Update - Intermediate and Long-Term

Our intermediate signals remain moderately long. This set of signals has suffered through the volatility of the stock market -- but believe the market is oversold.

Our long-term systems remain fully long. Note, however, that if the market doesn't show some life, these systems will downgrade to a moderately long signal. Our long-term model has been fully engaged in the market for about nine months (since last summer!). Stay tuned...