Showing posts with label Rambus. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Rambus. Show all posts

Thursday, April 19, 2012

The Rambus (RMBS) Saga: A Cautionary Tale

Here is a great summary of the Rambus saga, that we have followed over the years:




Few Silicon Valley companies inspire a wider range of emotions than the computer chip designer Rambus. In the view of its leaders -- as well as fiercely loyal shareholders who have flown around the country to watch its lawyers in court -- the company is a visionary turned victim. Rambus revolutionized the computer industry in the 1990s, they say, when the company debuted state-of-the-art chip technology and licensed it to chip manufacturers. Rambus hasn't been fairly compensated for those innovations, its defenders maintain, because rivals copied the technology and refused to pay up. Confronted with brazen collusion and theft, Rambus had no choice but to seek relief in court by suing its rivals.

"We really didn't plan on being a litigation company," says Thomas Lavelle, Rambus's general counsel since 2006. "Our founders had breakthrough innovations and great patents, and they believed that would lead to success. I don't think it occurred to them that -- as cynical as the world can be -- the better product might not be adopted."


...


Rambus officials, for their part, strike an optimistic tone. "We're the small company that went into battle and found ourselves up against a couple of armies and somehow survived," says Lavelle. "While we haven't been successful in all of our litigation, we have plenty of assets, resources, and spirit to go forward. I think that's a remarkable story in and of itself."


...
Rambus's lawyers at Munger tried to make use of an email purportedly revealing a scheme by Micron to fix prices of its chip technology, known as DDR SDRAM. Micron executive Linda Turner wrote to her sales team in 2001 that "we have ... actually been requesting Infineon, Samsung, and Hynix to lower their DDR pricing to help it become a standard (and drive Rambus away completely)." The Rambus faithful have long felt that the Turner email was a smoking gun of price-fixing.
...


For Several observers, the Rambus saga is a cautionary tale. As Quinn, the patent lawyer at Zies, Widerman, sees it, "Rambus felt wronged and said, 'We are going to litigate to get the result we know we deserve.' " That's a dangerous mind-set, Quinn continues: "Once they did that, they crossed a bridge and burned it. There was no going back." Jordan Sigale, a partner at Loeb & Loeb who has not represented Rambus or its opponents, agrees that Rambus should have struck a different tone. "If your model is to have other companies license your technology, when you have to litigate, you do so professionally and without bravado, so that you don't burn bridges," he says. Instead, Rambus went for a "scorched-earth policy." Sigale adds, "I think it's going to be a long time before Micron and Hynix come back to Rambus and license anything."
Rambus may not need them, however. It continues to license DRAM patents, both old and new, to companies such as Samsung and Panasonic Corporation. And it got a morale boost in December, when Broadcom signed an agreement to license DRAM patents. (Rambus had sued Broadcom at the International Trade Commission, alleging infringement of six DRAM patents.)
Perhaps sensing an uncertain future in computer memory, Rambus is branching out. Last year it paid $342 million for Cryptography Research, a company that provides security to semiconductors. It has also acquired the rights to portfolios of LED lighting patents from smaller companies. "That's where we are really putting most of our focus going forward," says Lavelle. "I like to think that over time, we are going to be a role model for how to do what the U.S. is good at -- innovate and turn that innovation into revenue.

Read more here:


Wednesday, October 5, 2011

On Rambus

Here are some meaty tidbits about Rambus with respect to Micron and their AT (Anti-Trust) lawsuit.



"...investors are waiting to hear the verdict and damages in the case Rambus (Nasdaq:RMBS) has brought against Micron. Whatever the merits of the Rambus case, the reality is that other players (Samsung and Infineon) have chosen to settle with Rambus and there seems to be an expectation that Micron is going to be found liable at least to some extent. The question, then, is how much of the potentially $14 billion in damages that Rambus wants will the company actually get (and how will it be split with co-defendant Hynix)? As Micron has about $10 billion in shareholder equity, this isn't a small issue. 

The Bottom Line

Crippling Micron isn't going to get Rambus what it wants or needs (which is money), and neither will pushing the company into bankruptcy. Still, there is a real risk that Micron could be on the hook for quite a lot of money to be paid out over quite a long time. Micron will almost assuredly appeal an adverse verdict, but this is a large potential liability that is difficult for would-be investors to accurate discount and factor into their models." 


Read more: http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2011/Microns-Persistence-Of-Memory-MU-HPQ-DELL-SNDK-RIMM-NOK-RMBS1004.aspx?partner=YahooSA#ixzz1ZupTyAiY

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With all of the activity in the stock, here is a link to see up-to-the-second bid-asks (thanks to EssexElectric at InvestorVillage).

http://www.batstrading.com/book/RMBS/



Thursday, May 27, 2010

Nice write-up by 3rd party on RMBS

One of the "flyers" we have mentioned has been in the news recently. Here is a good write-up from a 3rd party:


Legal Delays Hit Rambus

Shares of memory chip maker Rambus (Nasdaq: RMBS) are off -8% today on word that the International Trade Commission (ITC) will delay a decision on whether Nvidia (Nasdaq: NVDA) and others violated Rambus’ patents. Rambus, along with Qualcomm (Nasdaq: QCOM), has made its name as a collector of royalties for the massive base of intellectual property it has developed. Before the delay, shares of Rambus had been near a multi-year high on expectations of an imminent positive resolution to the matter. Yet this is more of a delay then a real setback, as the ITC simply wants all parties to weigh in on how a royalty deal between Samsung and Rambus will affect the rest of the industry.

Rambus has always been a difficult stock to value. Much of its profits come from royalties, and the timing of agreements creates very lumpy revenue and profit results. The company was especially active in securing new agreements in the middle of the last decade, which pushed shares above $40 in 2006. Royalty revenue slumped in more recent years, and shares now trade closer to $25.

Action to Take --> Over the near-term, shares should rebound and push past the $30 mark, perhaps closer to $35. That’s because the company is expected to imminently win a patent case over memory makers Hynix and Micron Semiconductor (NYSE: MU), which could net the company close to $500 million in an upfront license, and then more revenue from ongoing royalties. After that, perhaps by the end of July, the company is still expected to prevail in the case that was just delayed by the ITC. That could net the company a similar windfall.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Flyer RMBS ready to Fly??

One of the stocks we mention as a "flyer" (high potential return, high risk) has been making thenews. Here is a recent mention in "Smart Money" / "Barrons."



If the court finds in its favor, the damages would be tripled to roughly $13 billion. Bulls deduct taxes from that result, divide it by Rambus' 117.5 million shares outstanding to determine that the company will enjoy a $66-per-share windfall.



Saturday, April 24, 2010

Snippets from Barrons article on RMBS

Thanks to InvestorVillage posters, here are some snippets from today's article in Barrons on RMBS:

"So far, results have been mixed, even when Rambus (ticker: RMBS) ostensibly wins. A major settlement with Samsung Electronics (SSNGY) came in far below expectations. Yet Rambus boasts a $2.9 billion stock-market value, based largely on bulls' bet that its $12 billion lawsuit against Micron Technology (MU) and Hynix Semiconductor will succeed, producing a rich reward." (snip)
"Optimistic analysts say a victory could help propel the stock, recently around 25, up to 50." (snip)
(Reflecting the Micron/Hynix case) "If the court finds in its favor, the damages would be tripled to roughly $13 billion. Bulls deduct taxes from that result, divide it by Rambus' 117.5 million shares outstanding to determine that the company will enjoy a $66-per-share windfall." (snip)
(Reflecting on Samsung's settlement for $900 million), "If Hynix, based in Korea, and Micron, based in Boise, Idaho, settle for $900 million each, that would lead to a total of $1.8 billion, which after taxes shrinks to $1.1 billion, or $9 a share."


Friday, January 15, 2010

RMBS (probabilities)

The good news is that RMBS's share price is holding up relatively well given yet another (slight) delay. RMBS's antitrust case against the "cartel" was set to start earlier in the week -- and surprise (!!) -- at the last second, we learn that one of the cartel lawyers is very sick. Here's Bloomberg's blurb on Rambus.

Note that this isn't much of a surprise because the same thing happened just a few months ago! Back then, Rambus' case was delayed due to the health of a cartel lawyer -- which pushed the trial closer to the holidays -- so the court decided to postpone the case until early January. This time, the judge delayed things for eight days to decide what to do next...

A few notes on Rambus:
  • Based on the reaction of the share price, we feel that Rambus is holding up fairly well.
  • Overall, we believe the price hanging tight at 20-21 is "good news" because on a "contrarian" level, the level of negativity by longer-term RMBS shareholders seems to be on the high end. That is, with all of the negativity, for RMBS to go from 23-24 down to 20-21 is a good sign.
  • On the other hand, some RMBS investors and regular message board "posters" have said that "not much has changed" -- and that people need to hang tight and await the "reward."
  • We are overall happy that the share price is hanging tough with the slight delay and negativity. In fact, this level in the 20-21 range will hopefully develop into long-term support in the future.
What does the market say? We used a "back of the envelope" method to value/price a few scenarios that include the range of possibilities (including solid business solution, and bad conclusions for Rambus). We wanted to estimate the probabilities that the market is pricing in -- for various scenarios in RMBS's future. What do the numbers say?
  • Several months ago, Rambus was hovering in the mid-teens. At this stock price, the market was signaling about a 20% chance of a good conclusion/business solution for RMBS.
  • When the stock was hovering at about 24, just below resistance in the 24.5 to 26 range, this percentage was more like 40%
  • Since the mini-delay -- as we await the judge's decision next Thursday, the stock has dropped to the 21 range -- and the percentage has dropped correspondingly to about 35%.
The price action seems to make some sense -- and we hope that justice will be served -- sooner rather than later. We continue to believe that Rambus has good potential as a "flyer" for aggressive investors -- and most "longs" will agree that they are happier at 21 than they were at 16.

Thursday, December 3, 2009

Rambus (RMBS) moving to 52-wk highs

In some previous blog posts, we have mentioned Rambus (ticker RMBS) as a flyer that has a lot of risk -- but correspondingly high potential rewards. Very high potential...

Currently, there is a "perfect storm" of news out there -- each of which has the potential to launch RMBS to much higher levels. These include:
  • EU settlement with RMBS should be finalized at any moment. Although the specified royalty rates are lower than Rambus might have hoped for -- the agreement will legitimize RMBS intellectual property and potentially pave the way for licenses with some big firms. There have been rumors that some big names (like Apple!) could sign up as licensees.
  • The AT trial in Judge Kramer's Court is scheduled for Jan 11 -- and if all stays on target, as the days tick by, the marketplace will have their eye on a payoff that has been estimated in the billions of dollars (from several billion dollars to double-digit billions).
  • Whyte's Court also has proceedings that are scheduled this week.
There are, of course, risks of delays and other setbacks. For now, however, the market action looks like we could break out to the upside. Here is a look at some resistance levels that may be of interest to investors:
  • A close above 19.42 would be bullish.
  • The next level of resistance would be the 23-25 range.
  • Next resistance level is the 35-42 range.
  • And then, dare we say... triple-digits!
From Previous Blog Posts
Rambus is involved in patent litigation (ugh) -- but seems to be winning the war and getting over the hump in terms of risk. Note, however, that I thought this to be the case back in January, when the stock was a bit higher. In early January, things seemed to be going RMBS's way and the stock was trending higher to around 18. Rambus got blind-sided by a court in Delaware (which some feel will be overturned) and the stock cratered to the single-digits.

However, Rambus has continued to make progress in other venues and has been edging upwards again. The stock is building a base at around 10 -- and as a trader, the stock chart is looking favorable. Rambus certainly has a lot of risk and volatility surrounding it -- but it is certainly a "flyer." It has the potential to easily move up to a multiple of its current price -- with some predicting triple digits.

You can find more information at www.rambus.org, forums at www.investorvillage.com and www.yahoo.com (lot of noise at forums) and www.rambus.com.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

Early Morning Calls: Stocks Up, Gold Up, US $ down

Many market sectors are continuing their extended moves, with US stocks calling higher early Tuesday morning due to the G-20 stimulus pledge. On Labor Day Monday, most world stocks were up 1%-1.5%. Our stock indicators remain long http://z-trader.blogspot.com/2009/09/stocks-all-systems-go.html .

This is causing gold to extend its push higher -- and is newsworthy, with gold currently trading hands at more than $1000/oz ($1007 in early morning trade, in the Dec futures contract). Gold has the potential to be a major mover today, as stops above $1000 are taken out. On the other hand, some traders will take profits at the round $1000 level. The US dollar is lower.

At some point, the fundamentals say that we may have to "pay the piper" -- but for now, traders need to be neutral or following these trends. Some traders may even be "dipping their toes in" and taking small contrarian positions -- but we typically follow extended moves. The global economy has hopefully averted more drastic moves in the financial markets, but only time will tell.

Quick follow-ups:
  • After running to multi-year highs, the Sugar market is taking a breather and is down significantly in just a few days. Traders should look for a base before accumulating long positions again. http://z-trader.blogspot.com/2009/08/sugar-market.html
  • Soon after our pre-market followup on Rambus last Friday, rumors of Samsung buying RMBS -- or at least in serious talks -- caused the stock to pop back up towards its upper range. We have no information besides the rumors swirling around. However, we believe that (1) the court delay under "weird" circumstances, combined with (2) a "big volume day" (share volume was more than four times the recent average volume; options volume was more than three times normal!) -- means that something could be in the works.
  • Rambus is currently trading around $19 in Germany, after closing at 17.75 last Friday and 15.93 on Thursday. http://z-trader.blogspot.com/2009/09/rmbs-update.html

Friday, September 4, 2009

RMBS -- update

Back in April, we mentioned a high-return, high-risk "flyer" named Rambus.
As we stated, we like having a few "flyers" in our portfolio that have the potential for huge gains.

Rambus is involved in patent and anti-trust litigation (with Memory Manufacturers [MM]) that could bring in billions of dollars in damages and ongoing royalties -- or could wring the company dry. Since we mentioned the stock in April, the stock has moved up steadily from around 10 (after bottoming at around 5 and 7 in Nov 08 and Feb 09 respectively) to the high teens.

The stock hit recent highs of around 19.5 as the anti-trust suit scheduled for the end of Sept 2009 neared. This date has now been postponed to Jan 2010 due to the illness of a MM attorney. The delay caused the stock to move from the 19 range down to the 15's. However, due to the strange circumstances surrounding the delay, there is chatter that other things are going on "behind the scenes." While this remains to be seen, the drop to the 15's indicates increased uncertainty, but not "horrible" news.

We continue to see RMBS as a high potential flyer -- with associated risk. As litigation moves forward, and with the stock recently penetrating upside resistance at 19.1, we see the stock moving back to the high teens --- and into the 20's barring other unforeseen obstacles. Next upside resistance levels include 26 and mid-40's (!!) -- nice gains from the current 15 price range.

Traders may want to see a base form before buying RMBS.

Wednesday, April 15, 2009

RMBS -- a flyer?

Although we focus more on trading the futures markets, we also talk to friends and family about asset allocation, mutual funds, and individual stocks. From time to time, we'll post information on these areas (such as prudent asset allocation) on our blog.

In this post, we want to discuss "flyers." We sometimes like to take a small amount of our portfolios and invest in a "flyer." A "flyer" is an investment that has a fair amount of risk -- but also has huge upside. We wanted to mention a company that we have been following called Rambus (ticker RMBS). Rambus owns many patents in computer chip interface and system design -- and is trying to collect licensing / damages for their patents.

Rambus is involved in patent litigation (ugh) -- but seems to be winning the war and getting over the hump in terms of risk. Note, however, that I thought this to be the case back in January, when the stock was a bit higher. In early January, things seemed to be going RMBS's way and the stock was trending higher to around 18. Rambus got blind-sided by a court in Delaware (which some feel will be overturned) and the stock cratered to the single-digits.

However, Rambus has continued to make progress in other venues and has been edging upwards again. The stock is building a base at around 10 -- and as a trader, the stock chart is looking favorable. Rambus certainly has a lot of risk and volatility surrounding it -- but it is certainly a "flyer." It has the potential to easily move up to a multiple of its current price -- with some predicting triple digits.

You can find more information at www.rambus.org, forums at www.investorvillage.com and www.yahoo.com (lot of noise at forums) and www.rambus.com.

Please let us know what you think -- and what other "flyers" you like.