Friday, February 25, 2011
The intermediate-term model is currently strongly bullish, as is the long-term model. The z-Trader Short-Term system, tracked on Collective2, focuses on liquid markets such as the S&P, and will reflect these models -- as well as the z-Trader's short-term models.
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Saturday, February 19, 2011
Please contact us for more information.
Monday, February 14, 2011
Our short-term models, along with the long-term models, have kept us on the right side of the stock market's rise, so that our Short-Term System has had a good run in February.
Friday, February 11, 2011
Three trading systems that failed
and what we can learn from them
A lot of trading-system sites like to brag about how people made money on their site.
... Every now and then we review bad trading systems on our site.
Why our obsession with failure?
Because failure, more than success, is interesting. Not just in a snarky, let's-kick-people-when-they're-down kind of way. When trading systems fail, it gives investors a chance to ask questions. Were there warning signs that should have been heeded? Is there anything that these failed systems have in common?
The point of reviewing these three systems is to learn from mistakes. The best kind of mistakes to learn from are the ones that other people make. (Learning from your own mistakes, while a powerful pedagogical method, hurts like hell.)
So what did we learn today?
- Trading systems that engage in Martingale strategies can look good for a long time. But they always end the same way, and it's never pretty.
- System developers that talk about golden harmonics and astrology and bird entrails should be treated with skepticism.
- Even supposedly "low-risk" strategies have risk. There is no such thing as a free lunch.
Monday, February 7, 2011
I have been a trader for over 15 years, and recently started to post trades on third-party tracker, Collective2. Our most-established program, zFutures, is a diversified futures program -- and now has almost 200 trades tracked and more than 6-months worth of history on Collective2. It is notable that this has been a good period for the futures markets, but we are pleased that potential investors are happy with the program's trade statistics. In particular:
- The ratio of Average Profit from (Winning Trades) / (Losing Trades) is close to 2.
- The percentage of winning trades is currently over 50%.
Friday, February 4, 2011
In our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game?,” we studied factors related to sports psychology that might help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl starting in January 1967, or forty-four games. With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, as well as statistical analysis that attempts to identify factors that are as independent from one another as possible, five key statistical factors were identified. These statistics are related to principles of sport psychology like experience, leadership, error control and consistency. So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all major sports. Last year these factors accurately predicted a Saints’ victory over the Colts.
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
Interestingly, a look-ahead at the model's signals points to a bullish call in a few days, but that is dependent on stock market action. Keep an eye on our blog for updated information. Our long-term model remains strongly bullish. In addition, short-term market direction will help dictate our overall stock index futures position.
The stock market has been relatively quiet -- especially to the upside -- in recent weeks. The market has generally moved steadily higher, although it has hit some resistance at the 1300 level on the S&P 500. Our z-Trader Short-Term System, tracked at Collective2, applies the results of these stock market models to the S&P and/or E-Mini contracts. Because the market has had this "grudging" rise with resistance near 1300, the system has also been flattish.
The Short-Term System trades larger, more volatile, markets such as the S&P, energy, metals, and financials.