Wednesday, August 5, 2009

End of Recession? Or Contrarian Sign of a Top?

This stock market has been mighty resilient. Several times over the past few weeks, the market has "called down" overseas -- only to rally during US market hours. The market has gone straight up despite most people predicting a return to March lows. Recently, Goldman Sachs has been calling for an end to the recession / depression.

Indeed, many analysts and economists point to the stock market bottoming about 6 months before the end of a recession. Previous recessions have seen the market bottom anywhere from 4 to 10 months before the "official end" of their associated recessions; the average has been 6-7 months. The analysts view the March stock market lows as "The Lows" for this stock market cycle and project an end of the recession to be around September or October. What a turnaround from the doomsday scenarios we have repeatedly seen since November's lows.

We'll be back with more contrarian views of a short-term top.

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