Saturday, July 18, 2009

Outlook for the Stock Market

The market is very interesting right now. We are truly at a crossroads... After the scary declines last fall (in Nov 08, the S&P hit 750) -- and then again this spring (March 09, we hit 670), the market has rallied strongly (to around 950 on the S&P).

Many gurus are calling for steep declines ("bear market rally"). Currently:

- Our Long-term models are bearish, and
- Our Intermediate-term models are bearish.

However, interestingly, if we rally much more, our Long-term models will lighten their stranglehold on the strong short position they have held for about 1.5 years. In this volatile market, you definitely have to let the "tape" tell you the story!

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