Monday, July 20, 2009

Long-Term Model for Stocks turns neutral

Our long-term model shifted to a very slight short signal, the first time it hasn't been pretty much "pegged" to the short side since Jan 2008. That's a long time -- but this is a longer-term model that doesn't change signals often. This model did its job, keeping us focused on the short side during this rough patch. In Jan 2008, the S&P stood at 1400, a far cry from today's 950 (and even further from the scary 600/700 level we touched a few months ago). We, or course, (unfortunately) were not short this entire time, because we trade multiple time frames.

Our Intermediate-Term model remains moderately short.

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