Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Stock System Model update (8/23 after the close)

At current levels, our stock model indicators are as shown below.  Note that at our last stock model update, the S&P was at 1296.  The S&P closed today at 1162.  Not to state the obvious, but the market has been extremely volatile and has been difficult to trade with relatively large whipsaws.

  • Our positions have been dominated by the short-term movement of the markets.  Over the long haul, the combination of time-frames is typically helpful, but this market environment was extremely difficult -- creating whipsaw reversals.  
  • At current levels, our long-term model is very slightly bearish.  This is the first time the model has dipped to the bearish side in quite some time.  
  • Our intermediate-term oversold/overbought models are moderately bullish.  
Thus, we have a mixed bag of indicators -- where positions will remain driven by the short-term systems we employ.  Traders should be cautious -- but look for tradable moves.  Long-term investors should be cautious but may think about adding to positions on dips.  


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