Friday, February 4, 2011

Super Bowl Quant Facts & Square Pools (NY Times)

Here is an excerpt from my article, published in the NY Times, where we try to quantify key concepts of sports psychology to study methods of building and developing winning teams and champions.

In our book, “Who Will Win the Big Game?,” we studied factors related to sports psychology that might help predict the winner of the Super Bowl. The results are based on every Super Bowl starting in January 1967, or forty-four games. With an eye towards key concepts of sport psychology, as well as statistical analysis that attempts to identify factors that are as independent from one another as possible, five key statistical factors were identified. These statistics are related to principles of sport psychology like experience, leadership, error control and consistency. So important are these concepts to winning championships that they have proven to be common themes across all major sports. Last year these factors accurately predicted a Saints’ victory over the Colts.

The entire article can be found at (entire link below)

Super Bowl Square Pool Probabilities

Separately, if you are in a Square Pool, the NY Times published our Square Pool Probabilities last year (both online and "in print" on Super Bowl Sunday).  The charts show the probability of winning a Square Pool by quarter, based on the underdog and favorite.  To use the probability charts this season, replace last year's underdog, the Saints with the Steelers -- and the favorite, the Colts, with the Packers.  Then, look up the numbers you received to view your chances of winning that quarter.

Special thanks to Don LaFronz, a financial advisor, who originated the idea and helped devise the methodology.  

Carlton Chin, a fund manager and MIT graduate, and Jay Granat, psychotherapist, are authors of “Who Will Win the Big Game? A Psychological & Mathematical Method.”  

Jay Granat and Carlton Chin study and quantify championship characteristics related to sport psychology.  They are particularly interested in qualities that are more readily coached, taught, and practiced.

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